…and What to Do about It

By Mark Christian

What is to be made of the mess that is Syria?  Does there exist a side with which America might prudently align?  To decipher this puzzle, it’s important to recall a little of Syria’s history and how that history continues to shape its people.

Syria is a nation with a diverse collection of ethnicities and a multitude of religious affiliations.  Its capital, Damascus, is the oldest still existing city in human history.  Since 1970, when a coup led by then-family patriarch Hafez Assad brought them to power, the Assad family have enjoyed uninterrupted rule, despite repeated attempts to dislodge them.

The Assads are Alawites, a small minority sect of Shia Islam.  Hafez Assad was the first Shiite head of state since the 11th century, and his ascension to power served as inspiration for the Shiite Iranian revolution less than a decade later. 

Indeed, Assad sheltered Iranian leader Ayatollah Khomeini during part of his exile and, having become close friends, Assad provided logistical, political, and financial support to Khomeini during the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

While Syria is 87 percent Muslim, Shias are a mere fraction of those at only 12 percent.  President Bashar Assad belongs to a small minority in the country he rules, maintaining power through the support of fellow Shia adherents Iran and its terror proxy, Hezb’allah…

After years of feckless foreign policy, there remain few options for dealing with Syria.  None of them is particularly good.

  1. The U.S. can get out of Syria and let the Syrians handle it on their own.  A non-starter, as such a withdrawal would empower Iran, Hezb’allah, and Russia, all of whom would officially take full control.  While endangering American influence in the Middle East, as well as the safety of the state of Israel, it would also spark renewed conflict between Shia and Sunni that would set the Middle East on fire.
  2. The U.S. can remove or kill Assad through massive application of airpower.  This approach would be prohibitively expensive, result in tremendous collateral damage, and bring us into direct conflict with the Russian forces now stationed in the theater of operations.  Even if successful in removing Assad, it offers no means of keeping Iran, ISIS, or Hezb’allah from filling the vacuum.
  3. The U.S. can remove or kill Assad and occupy Syria in conjunction with international forces.  This is a repeat of the Iraq and Afghanistan scenarios, made far worse by the unique confluence of disparate ideologies, ethnicities, and political affiliations present in Syria.  A boots-on-the-ground war in Syria would make Iraq look like a walk in the park.
  4. Replace Assad through diplomatic means or by force,  using Arab Sunni military forces who are anti-Muslim Brotherhood.  This is the most difficult option but has the potential for the best outcome.  This option would involve intense diplomatic efforts, ponderous sanctions on the current key players (Iran and Russia), and the marginalizing of naysayers like Turkey and Qatar.  Above all, it must fully exclude any Muslim Brotherhood influences…

Read more on “The Problem of Syria and What to Do about It”»

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/04/the_problem_of_syria_and_what_to_do_about_it.html#ixzz5EfAv3i5F 

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